The top tech trends to watch for in 2011
Pre-New Year projections are nothing new in the tech world. As we get set to welcome in 2011, however, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the year ahead will offer more than its fair share of geek-infused excitement.
2010 was the year when Apple’s iPad finally broke the industry’s 15-year tablet computer hex, 3D television came to the big box store, and WikiLeaks underscored just how vulnerable we’ve become to relatively simple security threats. The new year promises to build on the past 12 months with a wave of better tablets, better security offerings, and an ever-accelerating stream of increasingly interconnected devices and services.
Pull out your crystal ball as we look ahead at the following trends:
Tablets
For now, Apple’s iPad has the tablet market largely to itself, but that will change dramatically early in the new year. New devices powered by Google’s Android operating system are already hitting store shelves — Samsung’s Galaxy Tab is a strong early contender for iPad-alternative status — and RIM’s PlayBook is showing promise in advance of its anticipated release in the first quarter of the year.
“I’m pretty sure 2011 will be the year of the tablets,” says Chris Brozenick, vice president and general manager of WeatherBug Mobile, a mobile app development company. “We’ve already seen it start to take off. There’s no question these are transformational devices and they’re already causing a shift in people’s habits.”
3D TV
Last year’s blockbuster film, Avatar, whetted consumers’ appetite for three-dimensional content just in time for the first 3D flat-screens from major manufacturers to hit store shelves. But the majority of these first-generation televisions required users to don finicky and expensive glasses. And don’t even think about carting your glasses to your friend’s house, because the lack of industry standards means most of them won’t work with televisions from other manufacturers.
“This isn’t just inconvenient,” says Dave Evans, chief technologist with Cisco’s Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG), “it precludes being able to experience 3D outside the home, like at the mall or at a car dealership. It’s a burden in many ways that today’s screens require glasses because it’s another thing you’ve got to carry around, another device you’ve got to worry about.”
Evans says new 3D TVs that don’t require glasses will allow the technology to become much more pervasive and easy-to-use in 2011.
Pico projectors
Everyone’s familiar with the overhead projectors that drive yawn-inducing PowerPoint presentations everywhere. Shrunken versions of those devices, typically the size of a deck of cards and known as pico projectors, have been available for the past couple of years, but their relatively high price has relegated them to the realm of senior executive plaything. As the technology shrinks in both size and cost, the ability to project information normally displayed onto a screen will be increasingly built into smartphones and other pocket devices.
“Today we use pico projectors as stand-alone devices,” says Evans. “But in 2011, they’ll become pervasive. Consumers will very quickly get used to them, as they’ll allow video and photos to be displayed anyplace, anytime.”
Augmented reality
Imagine holding a smartphone or tablet up in front of you and using the camera to record the scene. Augmented reality adds layers of detailed information about what you’re seeing, in real-time. So if you’re walking past the CN Tower, for example, an augmented reality application would display stats on the structure, and include details on how you could purchase tickets to the top and make lunch reservations once you’re there.
Camera-equipped devices with enough processing power made augmented reality a reality in 2010. Next year, wider availability of even more capable hardware and software will drive it mainstream.
Mobile shopping
The combination of increasingly popular and powerful smartphones with recession-weary consumers will see shoppers lean more heavily on their devices when they hit the mall.
“We’re seeing a lot more people using their mobile devices to find bargains, compare prices, conduct research and actually conduct commerce,” says Simon Buckingham, founder and CEO of Appitalism. “Three times more people used mobile devices while shopping on Black Friday compared to the previous year, so this will definitely continue to be a big trend into 2011.”
The arrival next year of even more powerful smartphone and tablet processors and the first wave of next-generation advanced 3.5G and 4G data networks will only fuel this trend, adds Buckingham.
Solid state drives
The spinning magnetic — and often crash-prone — hard drives that have stored documents, pictures and music on our desktop and laptop computers for decades could soon be replaced by a drive that doesn’t spin at all. Apple’s recently updated MacBook Air computers, for example, ship only with solid state drives (SSDs) that consume less power, generate less heat, and are more rugged than sometimes-fragile conventional drives.
Cost remains an issue, as typical hard drives still cost significantly less and are available in much higher capacities. But the price/size gap continues to shrink, and in 2011 SSDs will become more common.
The green agenda
Smarter, faster, better connected devices running smarter software will drive the push beyond simply using smartphones for email and basic web access. According to Don Campbell, chief technology officer of IBM Business Analytics, next year we’ll begin to use all that power to become a little greener.
“We’re moving to a place where more and more people can play a role in helping save our planet,” he says. “The fact is we all carry around these mobile devices and they have GPS, cameras and other capabilities. Being able to leverage the masses and the data and communication capabilities of these mobile devices is something that will start building steam in 2011.”
Campbell describes a scenario where a GPS-enabled smartphone uses knowledge of the environment, including weather and traffic data, to predictively suggest alternative — and more efficient — routes.
“We’ve already made the investment in infrastructure,” he says. “Once you start putting all of these pieces together, these mobile devices will allow us to be very intelligent and environmentally friendly by not wasting either our time or our energy.”
Carmi Levy is a London, Ont.-based independent technology analyst and journalist. carmilevy@gmail.com
